silly, silly boy.
it's been a while since we had absurd optimism from an f1 personality. i thought the practice was falling out of style.
I think that's some sort of misunderstanding.
He was probably talking about a possible victory of Spain against Holland in the World Cup final, not about his F1 drivers championship...
BTW, congrats to Spain for their first WC title!!
Now Spain has other 11 shining stars to share the spotlight with Nando and Nadal.
Everyone knows Shumacher is going to beat Alonso to the WDC this year!
I wonder if he really did say that - seems bizarre that he would
(07-12-2010 12:21 PM)Koala Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if he really did say that
I'm sure Miguel will confirm the story's presence in autosport.pt
Fixing the clutch is good for 6/10 ths
Hail Teflonso !
Whats he smoking ?
And then theres this , his cycling plans are crushed ...no F1 title and no tour de france ! LOL :
http://blogs.espnf1.com/The_Pits/archive...n_his_bike
Alonso not on his bike
Posted 2 days, 9 hours ago
Fernando Alonso has admitted it is unlikely his plans for a professional cycling team will be realised for 2011. Last year he said he wanted to set up a team involving his friend and Spanish rider Alberto Contador with the ambition of winning the Tour de France. But Alonso appears to have cooled and admitted plans are currently "on standby … it's difficult for next year”.
Why are you guys so pescimistic about his Chances? I'm in the minority it seems who believes this to be far fetched, but plausable. I doubt it will happen again, but Raikkonen was in a similar position, wins the opening race falls away and dominates the last races to win 5 in a row or something and takes the title.
Taking that away, the Ferrari isn't such a bad car this year. Alonso is not a bad driver. The last 3 races it wasn't the car that let him down, but some bad luck and some stupid mistakes. Alonso is good enough to stop making these stupid mistakes. If he can muster thogether 3 or 4 good races and take advantages of the Red Bull infighting and get past the lovey dovey couple of the McLaren due he's back in. We're halfway through, and all he needs is momentum now, and if he gets it he'll be 3 time champ.
far fetched but plausible seems fair to me. if alonso had said that, i would go with him. but to be adamant when he's in 5th place, 47 points back, having not won since the opening race, it's a bit over the top.
Here's a plausable scenario. He wins the next two races and the next 4 finish completely different positions 2 of them say Webber and Lewis don't even finish a race and say Kubica or Rosberg sneak on the podium again.
Alonso would be very much in the mix. He can qualify in the top four and make some fastest laps during the race. If I was his employer I would want him to be adamant of victory at this stage of the game too.
If he was qualifying poor and dropping back and not catching other cars and being slow in clean air I would be with you guys, but if safety cars wouldn't get in the way and some silly mistakes in Silverstone, he would be in the hunt.
I wouldn't put my money on him, but it's still far from ridiculous to think he'll win the title this year.
There are 225 points left up for grabs, and people are knocking on Alonso for feeling like he has a shot at the title when he's down by only 20% of the points left available, and he's driving what appears at this point to be the second-fastest car in the field?
Nick Heidfeld, Fairuz Fauzy, and Giancarlo Fisichella are still not mathematically eliminated from the title yet. I think you'd have to go all the way down to Massa in 8th or Schumacher in 9th to say that such a claim is far-fetched.
(07-12-2010 09:13 PM)cyan Wrote: [ -> ]There are 225 points left up for grabs, and people are knocking on Alonso for feeling like he has a shot at the title when he's down by only 20% of the points left available, and he's driving what appears at this point to be the second-fastest car in the field?
Nick Heidfeld, Fairuz Fauzy, and Giancarlo Fisichella are still not mathematically eliminated from the title yet. I think you'd have to go all the way down to Massa in 8th or Schumacher in 9th to say that such a claim is far-fetched.
![[Image: strawman.jpg]](http://www.zgeek.com/forum/gallery/files/6/3/2/strawman.jpg)
who knocked on him for feeling like he has a shot? we knocked on him for being adamant he will win.
if i were to use your black and white analysis, i would interpret your stating that it's possible he may win as your belief he will definitely win. are you adamant he will win, like he is?
I would love to see Alonso win a 3rd title.
A little bit of wishful thinking on his part!!!
The points cloud the difference this year. Alonso if 47 points behind, but if you convert that back to the old points system it's equivalent to 19 points. I still think it is optimistic to say he will definitely win, but 19 points wouldn't be that big to make up in past seasons with so many races left.
You also have to take into account there's more than 2 races left in the season, and there's more of a reward for winning.
Also the Ferrari has actually improved quite a lot since Turkey if you look at the races. Podium in Canada, on pace till safety car killed his rythim. Bad start, stupid move on Kubica but got fastest lap. The car is not his biggest problem and neither is his raw ability. He stops making mistakes and significantly move up, and he knows how not to do mistakes.
I'd take the fastest lap in the last race with a large pinch of salt, he put a new set of soft tyres on at the end.
With the new points system and the Red Bull team-internal-fight and McLarens talent to lose themselves titles, why shouldn't Fernando win?
I dislike both Ferrari and Alonso very much, so I will only believe they won't win the title when they are 51 points behind the leader going to Interlagos.
I am adamant I will be able to lose 10 kg until the end of the season, by the way.
Even putting his "bad luck" aside, I don't see Alonso as a hope for the championship this year.
Given Red Bulls consistant results, McLaren is making gains and definitly ahead of Ferrari. Then add in some Renault, Sauber and Mercedes etc, he's fighting a very tough field. And Ferrari fueled for race distance cant match Mclaren or Red Bulls race pace. Even Williams is coming alive now. Ferrari doesnt appear to be a front runner . Yes, mathematically its possible but realistically there are too many others that will take other random podium spots away from them so he won't make enough points.
If it was bad luck, he'd have a shot. But it's not... Ferrari and Alonso have been making mistakes. Like not giving Kubica the spot back... even though the FIA told them to. Bad luck is enough to cost a championship - but lay some stupid mistakes on there and it's game over. He only has a shot because both McLaren and Red Bull have done some stupid mistakes themselves.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/85258
i don't think the points are the problem, it's that there are 4 guys in front of him. if he was the same points back, but in 2nd, he'd have a much better shot. it's hard to beat all 4 of those guys consistently.
(07-13-2010 04:16 PM)frankdouglason Wrote: [ -> ]i don't think the points are the problem, it's that there are 4 guys in front of him. if he was the same points back, but in 2nd, he'd have a much better shot. it's hard to beat all 4 of those guys consistently.
Precisely!
Back in 2007 when Kimi snuck through, it was the 2 fighting McLaren drivers who gave him the chance to catch up. This time there are 4 drivers to contend with (maybe 5 or 6 if Robert and Nico's cars improve a bit more).
Right now we have Red Bull mucking things up, and McLaren capitalizing (or overdelivering to use Lewis' phrase). It's highly unlikely that both Red Bull and McLaren both infight so much that one of those four drivers can't keep pace with a resurgent Alonso. I'd imagine that Christian Horner starts focusing on keeping his drivers in line. Losing out on both titles two years in a row is going to look mighty bad on the young man's management record.
So Fernando is just firing up the Spanish and Italian press and reminding Ferrari that they're still in the fight. However, his motivation is going to start to wear thin if he doesn't start performing soon.
(07-13-2010 04:16 PM)frankdouglason Wrote: [ -> ]i don't think the points are the problem, it's that there are 4 guys in front of him. if he was the same points back, but in 2nd, he'd have a much better shot. it's hard to beat all 4 of those guys consistently.
I think that's exactly why he has a chance. If it was just one guy ahead of him he would always be getting away at maximum points, but the top cars are so close close and they keep changing positions. If he wins the next race and the redbulls crash into eachother he's just a couple of points behind Mark Webber in third.
I think there's valid points in both views. At the end of the day mid season he's 2 wins behind first place, and he scored badly in the last two races. So it's really up to if you believe he can stop making mistakes and if you think the car has made genuine improvement. I think the car has, and I think he can stop making stupid mistakes.
How do we go from ""I think we will win. Yes," said Alonso. "I think we lacked points in Valencia and Silverstone, but these are some moments of the championship where we needed to show that we want the championship and that we are a contender. I am more convinced than before this race that we will win the championship." to Alonso himself winning the championship?
Throughout that article he only refers to his team, not himself, as winning the championship.
Anyway, good for him for being positive that his team will win, even though McLaren and RBR are so much higher on the championship points. Ferrari is 84 points down from RBR, and a whopping 113 from McLaren. I suppose you can't win by being negative though...
just because he said "we" doesn't mean he meant the constructors. the one-car championship is still a team game.